Two Stage Procurement Processes With Competitive Suppliers and Uncertain Supplier Quality

This paper considers a sourcing problem faced by a manufacturer who outsources the manufacturing of a product to one of several competing suppliers, whose cost and quality capabilities are unknown. We consider a two-stage sourcing process in which the first stage is the qualification stage, while the second stage is the supplier selection stage. In the first stage, the manufacturer exerts effort to learn about the quality level of each of the suppliers and then must determine the set of qualified suppliers, subject to some tolerance for error. In the second stage, the manufacturer runs a price-only procurement auction, in which the qualified suppliers compete for the manufacturer’s business.We model this two-stage sourcing process with the goal of obtaining insights into manufacturer’s optimal decisions. We seek to determine the optimal qualification standard, the optimal amount of effort to be exerted in the qualification process and the appropriate tolerance for error in the qualification process, and to understand the interactions between these decision variables. We are particularly interested in understanding how the manufacturer can design the process to 1) ensure the firm only sources from qualified suppliers and 2) encourage competition among the suppliers during supplier selection

An Integrated System Dynamics and Discrete Event Supply Chain Simulation Framework for Supply Chain Resilience with Non-Stationary Pandemic Demand

COVID-19 resulted in some of the largest supply chain disruptions in recent history. To mitigate the impact of future disruptions, we propose an integrated hybrid simulation framework to couple nonstationary demand signals from an event like COVID-19 with a model of an end-to-end supply chain. We first create a system dynamics susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, augmenting a classic epidemiological model to create a realistic portrayal of demand patterns for oxygen concentrators (OC). Informed by this granular demand signal, we then create a supply chain discrete event simulation model of OC sourcing, manufacturing, and distribution to test production augmentation policies to satisfy this increased demand. This model utilizes publicly available data, engineering teardowns of OCs, and a supply chain illumination to identify suppliers. Our findings indicate that this coupled approach can use realistic demand during a disruptive event to enable rapid recommendations of policies for increased supply chain resilience with controlled cost

Supplemental Unemployment Benefits The Guaranteed Annual Wage

Today, after a decade of nearly full employment, very little is heard about the Guaranteed Annual Wage. Nonetheless, interest in this subject is still high a- mong union leadership, and it is reasonable to expect that, given a slightly less favorable rate of employ-- ment, agitation for employment guarantees by union rank and file will again bring this subject to the fore in collective bargaining sessions. In this paper, I propose to review past developments on this subject, including early Guaranteed Annual Wage plans, union negotiation of more recent plans, and the evolution and refinement of plans currently in use. In addition, this paper will attempt to analyze the workings of plans currently in effect with regard to their success in achieving stability of employment, their ef- . fect on the American working man, and on American society in general. The paper is divided into three chapters, the first dealing with the early history of the Guaranteed Annual Wage including employer initiated plans of the pre-World War II era, political developments fostering Guaranteed Annual Wage and the attitudes of union and management prior to the Ford, agreement of 1955* The second chapter deals with developments in the guaranteed annual wage from the date of the Ford settlement through 1945. The third chapter attempts to analyze these developments as to the success of the guaranteed annual wage, and its effect on our society

Two Stage Procurement Processes With Competitive Suppliers and Uncertain Supplier Quality

This paper considers a sourcing problem faced by a manufacturer who outsources the manufacturing of a product to one of several competing suppliers, whose cost and quality capabilities are unknown. We consider a two-stage sourcing process in which the first stage is the qualification stage, while the second stage is the supplier selection stage. In the first stage, the manufacturer exerts effort to learn about the quality level of each of the suppliers and then must determine the set of qualified suppliers, subject to some tolerance for error. In the second stage, the manufacturer runs a price-only procurement auction, in which the qualified suppliers compete for the manufacturer’s business.We model this two-stage sourcing process with the goal of obtaining insights into manufacturer’s optimal decisions. We seek to determine the optimal qualification standard, the optimal amount of effort to be exerted in the qualification process and the appropriate tolerance for error in the qualification process, and to understand the interactions between these decision variables. We are particularly interested in understanding how the manufacturer can design the process to 1) ensure the firm only sources from qualified suppliers and 2) encourage competition among the suppliers during supplier selection

The effects of non-renewable energy reserves : price and policy

As energy prices have increased, one question that has received little attention is the effect that geography has on the price of energy. Oil, coal, and natural gas are geologically concentrated, and by studying the effects this has on price in the United States, one may learn that proximity to an energy source has a significant impact on the price of that energy source. Likewise, a concentration of fossil fuel in a certain state and the correspondingly low energy prices may lead to fewer changes in energy policy in that state. These factors may lead to wide differences in opinions about energy and the environment among the 50 United States and may retard the development of a national energy policy. Using panel data from all 50 states, a price equation and a consumtion equation, I estimate how significant the impact of fossil fuel production on price and policy is. I conclude that fossil fuel production does significantly affect price. I also conclude that states with little or no oil, natural gas, and refining capacity are significantly more likely to use renewable energy resources

Aging Male Loons Make a Terminal Investment in Territory Defense

Animals that senesce experience a decline in residual reproductive value (RRV), such that old individuals can expect reduced breeding success compared to young ones. According to life history theory, animals with low RRV, which thus have less to lose, should shift resources away from self-maintenance and towards reproduction, an expectation called terminal investment. In a population of common loons whose survival and territorial behavior were measured throughout life, males 14 years and older exhibited clear senescence, as they showed lower survival, reduced body mass, and far greater susceptibility to territorial eviction than younger males. While older males invested no more effort than young males in feeding or protecting their chicks, they increased territorial yodeling by 35%, showed more aggression towards territorial intruders, and, following eviction from original territories, resettled with great frequency on vacant, unproductive territories nearby. Our findings thus provide support for terminal investment in territorial behavior. Hyper-aggressive behavior by old, declining males might explain the unusual occurrence of lethal combat for territories in this species